Download The Tyranny of Uncertainty: A New Framework to Predict, by Nabil Abu el Ata, Rudolf Schmandt PDF

By Nabil Abu el Ata, Rudolf Schmandt

ISBN-10: 3662491036

ISBN-13: 9783662491034

The authors supply a innovative way to danger administration. It’s the unknown hazards that maintain leaders unsleeping at night—wondering the right way to organize for and steer their association transparent from that which they can't are expecting. companies, governments and regulatory our bodies commit never-ending quantities of time and assets to the duty of chance administration, yet each chief is aware that the most important threats will come from a few new chain of occasions or unforeseen surprises—none of in order to be expected utilizing traditional knowledge or present probability administration applied sciences and so administration could be stuck thoroughly off safeguard whilst the following obstacle hits. via adopting a systematic method of hazard administration, we will be able to get away the restricted and historic view of expertise and statistical established probability administration types to show dynamic complexity hazards and get ready for brand spanking new and not skilled events.

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Additional info for The Tyranny of Uncertainty: A New Framework to Predict, Remediate and Monitor Risk

Sample text

This subjectivity in risk management represents a certain concern that should be addressed. Introduction During the 2007–2008 financial market meltdown, fear that one of the investment institutions would fail was prevalent. Significant effort was dedicated to determining how to save the global financial market without adding to the uncertainty or panic characterized by a systemic breakdown in accountability and ethics. In reality the risk was much bigger than was feared as it extended in impact well beyond the collapse of just one bank.

Dynamic complexity always accelerates the appearance of risk in time and conditions versus what was expected or supposed to happen. Dynamic complexity is a characteristic of a dynamic system that is hidden until the structural interdependencies among components begin to play a counterproductive effect that may become predominant at a certain point in time and eventually be revealed as a surprise. We present numerous cases throughout this book that show the impacts of dynamic complexity as the origin of crisis that appeared as a surprise or became a potential disaster in the making.

Static complexity) and dynamic complexity, it is helpful to consider static complexity as something that can be counted (a number of something), while dynamic complexity is something that is produced (often at a moment we do not expect). Dynamic complexity is formed through interactions, interdependencies, feedback, locks, conflicts, contentions, prioritizations, enforcements, etc. Subsequently, dynamic complexity is revealed through forming congestions, inflations, degradations, latencies, overhead, chaos, singularities, strange behavior, etc.

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